The energy price cap
Ofgem sets a maximum it can charge per unit of gas and electricity, and a maximum standing charge. It caps rates, not your total bill — use more, pay more.
How our forecast did
This is the first quarter we have tracked the price cap against our own forecast. We estimated £1,674 for October to December 2026. Ofgem announced £1,723. We were £49 under.
£31 of that was our own error rather than the forecast. When Ofgem changed the figure our model starts from, we updated it but left an old adjustment in place that should have gone with it. Everything the model produced came out fractionally low. We found it on 27 August, removed it, and recalculated.
The remaining £17 we are not calling a forecast result. Checking it, we found the model still measuring against the old VAT treatment on electricity, which Ofgem removed for October. Corrected for that, the forecast was further out rather than closer. We will report how it actually did once that is fixed.
One quarter is not a track record. We will publish the next one whether it flatters us or not.
What the cap is where you live
Ofgem does not set one cap. It sets fourteen, one for each charge restriction region, and from 1 October to 31 December 2026 the gap between the cheapest and the dearest is £132.03 a year. The £1,723 figure quoted nationally is the average of the fourteen below, so roughly half of Great Britain sits above it.
| Region | Cap, £/year | vs East Midlands |
|---|---|---|
| East Midlands | £1,672.27 | — |
| North WestNorth Western England | £1,684.73 | +£12.46 |
| London | £1,705.65 | +£33.38 |
| MidlandsWest Midlands | £1,708.07 | +£35.80 |
| EasternEastern England | £1,713.21 | +£40.94 |
| Northern Scotland | £1,716.73 | +£44.46 |
| SouthernSouthern England | £1,718.52 | +£46.25 |
| NorthernNorth Eastern England | £1,722.78 | +£50.51 |
| Yorkshire | £1,723.88 | +£51.61 |
| Southern Scotland | £1,733.66 | +£61.39 |
| South EastSouth Eastern England | £1,734.15 | +£61.88 |
| South WalesSouthern Wales | £1,743.56 | +£71.29 |
| Southern WesternSouth Western England | £1,745.50 | +£73.23 |
| N Wales and MerseyMerseyside and North Wales | £1,804.30 | +£132.03 |
Direct debit only. Ofgem publishes standard credit and prepayment as Great Britain averages rather than by region for this period — £1,861.16 and £1,677.89 a year respectively — so those two are not broken down above.
Figures for 1 October to 31 December 2026, at 2,500 kWh electricity and 9,500 kWh gas a year, with the standing charge annualised over 365 days. Announced by Ofgem on 26 August 2026; read from Ofgem default tariff cap level model v1.31 and Ofgem Annex 9 — Levelisation v1.11 on 27 August 2026. The cap limits unit rates and standing charges, not your total bill — use more, pay more.
Price cap tracker
Beta · estimate, not adviceWhere the Ofgem cap has been, and where our model thinks it’s heading.
Loading the latest estimate…
1. Electricity is made the moment you use it
There is no giant battery for the whole country. So the amount made has to match the amount used — every single second. When you switch things on, somewhere a power station makes a little more.
They always have to match.