The energy price cap
Ofgem sets a maximum it can charge per unit of gas and electricity, and a maximum standing charge. It caps rates, not your total bill — use more, pay more.
What this means for your kettle, your shower and the rest, at today’s cap or in your region.
How our January – March 2027 forecast has moved
- Our forecast, as calculated that day
- Range: wholesale market movement only
- October to December 2026 cap
Show the figures
| Market date | Forecast | Range | How |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sept 2026 | £2,060 | £1,946–£2,174 | On the day |
| 30 Sept 2026 | £2,078 | £1,963–£2,192 | On the day |
| 1 Oct 2026 | £2,089 | £1,985–£2,193 | On the day |
| 2 Oct 2026 | £2,096 | £1,998–£2,194 | On the day |
| 5 Oct 2026 | £2,087 | £1,994–£2,180 | On the day |
| 6 Oct 2026 | £2,103 | £2,015–£2,191 | On the day |
| 7 Oct 2026 | £2,118 | £2,035–£2,201 | On the day |
| 8 Oct 2026 | £2,125 | £2,047–£2,203 | On the day |
| 9 Oct 2026 | £2,139 | £2,065–£2,212 | On the day |
| 12 Oct 2026 | £2,154 | £2,085–£2,223 | On the day |
| 13 Oct 2026 | £2,171 | £2,106–£2,236 | On the day |
| 14 Oct 2026 | £2,173 | £2,112–£2,233 | On the day |
| 15 Oct 2026 | £2,170 | £2,114–£2,227 | On the day |
- Against the October to December 2026 capUp £447 (26.0%)£2,170 forecast, £1,723 now
- Since the last market dateDown £2 (0.1%)14 Oct to 15 Oct
- Over a weekUp £45 (2.1%)8 Oct to 15 Oct
Q1 2027 cap · effective 1 January 2027
42 of 64 days gone · 41 already priced · 22 to go
Ofgem announces the January to March cap by 25 November. Ofgem’s announcement dates, checked 2 October 2026. Today’s settlement is not counted.
Ofgem, Annex 2 observation calendar, checked 1 October 2026 · calendar day 19 October 2026
How the forecast is made
Switch4Good calculates this forecast from wholesale gas and electricity forward prices, using Ofgem's published price cap method and its current allowances. It's our estimate, not Ofgem's figure.
The manual works through Ofgem’s method step by step, with Ofgem’s own numbers.
How we calculate thisOfgem’s sources
- Ofgem, energy price cap unit rates and standing charges, checked 2 October 2026
- Ofgem, the cap for October to December 2026, checked 25 September 2026
- Ofgem, Annex 2 wholesale cost allowance methodology (observation calendar), checked 1 October 2026
Check a fixed-price quote
Enter the VAT-inclusive rates from a fixed offer you have found. We compare the same typical usage: 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas over a year, paying by direct debit.
This page has no verified live fixed offers to list. Check the offer’s availability, term, exit fees and any discounts before deciding. Actual costs depend on your usage; the cap applies to default tariffs, not a fix you choose. This is information, not advice. See energy comparison options.
Price cap tracker
Beta · estimate, not adviceWhere the Ofgem cap has been, and where our model thinks it’s heading.
Switch4Good calculates this forecast from wholesale gas and electricity forward prices, using Ofgem's published price cap method and its current allowances. It's our estimate, not Ofgem's figure.
- Market data through
- 15 October 2026
- Forecast recalculated
- 16 October 2026 at 19:49 BST
- Central forecast vs current cap
- £447/yr (26.0%) higher
Assumptions
Market-movement scenario from recent volatility over the remaining observation window; excludes uncalibrated model/source error. Not a confidence interval or a guarantee.
This range covers wholesale market movement only. Changes to Ofgem’s method, VAT or typical use can move the cap further.
an estimate from wholesale forward prices, not the official cap. Ofgem sets the cap.
About these numbers
History shows only published quarters on the same typical-consumption basis; the current cap and estimate are live from the model, rebuilt 16 October 2026. Market data as at 15 October 2026. Cap figures are on Ofgem’s updated 2026 typical domestic consumption values — see Ofgem’s cap rates.
See the cap in your region
What the cap is where you live
Ofgem does not set one cap. It sets fourteen, one for each charge restriction region, and from 1 October to 31 December 2026 the gap between the cheapest and the dearest is £132.03 a year. The £1,723 figure quoted nationally is the average of the fourteen below, so roughly half of Great Britain sits above it.
| Region | Cap, £/year | vs East Midlands |
|---|---|---|
| East Midlands | £1,672.27 | — |
| North WestNorth Western England | £1,684.73 | +£12.46 |
| London | £1,705.65 | +£33.38 |
| MidlandsWest Midlands | £1,708.07 | +£35.80 |
| EasternEastern England | £1,713.21 | +£40.94 |
| Northern Scotland | £1,716.73 | +£44.46 |
| SouthernSouthern England | £1,718.52 | +£46.25 |
| NorthernNorth Eastern England | £1,722.78 | +£50.51 |
| Yorkshire | £1,723.88 | +£51.61 |
| Southern Scotland | £1,733.66 | +£61.39 |
| South EastSouth Eastern England | £1,734.15 | +£61.88 |
| South WalesSouthern Wales | £1,743.56 | +£71.29 |
| Southern WesternSouth Western England | £1,745.50 | +£73.23 |
| N Wales and MerseyMerseyside and North Wales | £1,804.30 | +£132.03 |
Direct debit only. Ofgem publishes standard credit and prepayment as Great Britain averages rather than by region for this period — £1,861.16 and £1,677.89 a year respectively — so those two are not broken down above.
Figures for 1 October to 31 December 2026, at 2,500 kWh electricity and 9,500 kWh gas a year, with the standing charge annualised over 365 days. Announced by Ofgem on 26 August 2026; read from Ofgem default tariff cap level model v1.31 and Ofgem Annex 9 — Levelisation v1.11 on 27 August 2026. The cap limits unit rates and standing charges, not your total bill — use more, pay more.
How the price cap works
Ofgem sets maximum unit rates and standing charges for default tariffs. Your bill still depends on how much energy you use and where you live.
The cap includes wholesale energy, network charges and other costs. How our forecast is made is set out above.
The forecast is conditional. Market prices and other cap costs can change before Ofgem announces the final figure.
How the forecast compared with the last two caps
We ran today’s method again for the two most recent quarters we could rebuild, at the same point in each observation window.
- July to September 2026: forecast £1,955 against £1,663 published, 17.6% too high and outside the range.
- October to December 2026: forecast £1,673 against £1,723 published, 2.9% too low and just inside the range.
Both times, changes outside the wholesale market moved the cap more than market error did: Ofgem’s new typical use from 1 July, then no VAT on electricity from 1 October. This range covers wholesale market movement only. Changes to Ofgem’s method, VAT or typical use can move the cap further.
Back-test run on 1 October 2026. Earlier quarters could not be rebuilt from the data we hold.